Annals of GigaGrowth

"SBA Thanks You For All The Fish" (santabarbarianlsx)
07/16/2020 at 09:38 • Filed to: None

Anybody that has dug through the numbers “gets” this, but the stock market apparently doesn’t. EV sales have actually been hurt much worse that normal cars during the slowdown— mainly because they cost more and deliver less value to the customer. It’s not a great time to be selling “virtue signalling” luxury goods.

2021 could be “their best year yet” or it could be the year the market says, “hey electrification is over-promising and under-delivering. Let’s invest more in hybrids and the future in the form of FCEVs that do deliver actual benefits...”

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DISCUSSION (20)

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
07/16/2020 at 10:04

Yup, EVs are currently a luxury good. They aren’t the smart financial choice (yet). TSLA still hovering at $1500 - when does the crash come?

Think I’ll be able to pick up an electric dirt bike for cheap soon? =)

BaconSandwich is tasty. > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
07/16/2020 at 10:08

My next car will be an EV for a few reasons:
- I’m sick and tired of crawling around on the garage floor to change the oil
- Less maintenance overall
- Lower operating costs. I don’t have to bend over and take it every time the price of gas goes up.
- Instant heat in winter (this is a big one, as it has the potential to save me even more time each morning in winter)

I’m not going to buy something brand new, though. Right now, if I had to replace my current car, I’d pick up a used Chevy Bolt. Yes, it’s a GM product, but at least it seems reasonably well built, and a used Bolt is a heck of a better deal than a used Tesla.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
07/16/2020 at 10:10

On the stock I only know two things:
1) Somebody is going to get rich playing the downside, because it’s over-priced by at least 10X right now. I have no idea why people don’t think it’s a bubble.
2) These guys on the BUY side are crazy and will keep buying it up ( and won’t notice when The Big Guys quietly get out of it) until it’s too late. It makes it impossible for a lay person to guess the top.

I think the e-dirtbikes will be here soon. And, in the light duty categories the batteries make a lot of sense. I”m clearly troubled by the “8000 laptop cells in a car” or “25000 laptop cells in a truck” syndrome. But viable off road gear is coming.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
07/16/2020 at 10:22

Are there any new shorts coming to this play? All the shorts have already lost their... shorts. Eat my shorts.

It is irrational exuberance, for sure. Rusty sold some of his on my recommendation at $900 in February, then again recently at $1400. Still has a handful of shares left. Sucks to miss that near $1800 peak, but that was short-lived. But who f-ing knows? I thought it was stupid at $400...

I’m looking for something small and weak-ish to play around with on our 10 acres, and for my kids to enjoy, too. Seems like the perfect use-case for one.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > BaconSandwich is tasty.
07/16/2020 at 10:23

How cheaply can you get a Bolt these days?

Are they considerably better than the Volt?

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
07/16/2020 at 10:25

Oh, it’s so over-priced it will continue to bring new interest into playing the downside. Those who sold short at $350? Sure they hate life. But new players are always coming in and out.

But, these BUY side guys are nuts. It’s clearly a Dutch tulip bubble by now.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > BaconSandwich is tasty.
07/16/2020 at 10:26

I can almost see a LEAF for the same reason.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
07/16/2020 at 10:26

The Volt was awesome, but 10 years too early

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
07/16/2020 at 10:36

If you had a 5-10 mile commute, sure.

nermal > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
07/16/2020 at 10:39

Who buys new EVs? Most likely people with higher paying white collar jobs, who own a house with a garage where they can mount a charger - Also the same type of person that has switched from an office job to a work-from-home job recently .

Who buys new small cars and SUVs with 96 month loans and every extended warranty available? People with lower class and income jobs that still need to drive to work. They’re also more likely to live in an apartment and park in a plebeian parking lot.

Therefore, the key to expanding EV sales is to move them downmarket from a pricing perspective , and also offer more 96 month loans and more extended warranties on them. Also throw in a free extension cord when you buy one.

Cash Rewards > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
07/16/2020 at 10:53

I have a commute that's 20-25 miles, and my leaf works great. Range of 100 miles or so (max efficiency). I could theoretically go there and back twice, maybe? But charge every night, plenty of cushion. Its great (the half a dozen times I commuted before working from home forever; great timing)

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Cash Rewards
07/16/2020 at 10:59

Nice! What year is yours? Max speed?

Cash Rewards > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
07/16/2020 at 11:04

2016. Mid-level trim, which is a higher capacity battery but no fancy fog lights and higher trim stuff. Not sure on max speed, but is a normal car on the highway. Great in traffic, and I live in DC metro, so it's perfect

BaconSandwich is tasty. > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
07/16/2020 at 11:05

The reason I’d prefer the Bolt over the Volt is that there’s even less maintenance. The 2nd Gen Volt would probably be my next pick, but the middle seat in the back (which I would eventually need to transport a kid) is pretty uncomfortable looking .

I occasionally peruse AutoTempest, and I’ve seen Bolts routinely fall around the $16k mark, with a few going for $15k. Still a good chunk of change. Depreciation on the Volt has been even more savage. I’ve seen ones for ~$12K.

BaconSandwich is tasty. > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
07/16/2020 at 11:08

I’d love to buy a cheap first-gen Leaf and chop it to turn it into a tiny pickup truck, just for kicks. Like this:

Mrs. BaconSandwhich isn’t as keen on that idea. Also, the first-gen Leaf just doesn’t have the range I’d need - 150 km in winter. The 2nd gen leaf is more or less a warmed over first-gen - the battery pack is the same dimensions, and still doesn’t have liquid thermal management. As a result, I’m concerned about the longevity. I tend to keep my vehicles for as long as possible.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > BaconSandwich is tasty.
07/16/2020 at 11:49

That’s fantastic.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
07/16/2020 at 15:44

Oh, I’m putting an LS4 in the LEAF— I just want a cheap battery pack for a home energy unit.

I retired at 40 a few years ago, so am no longer encumbered with “commute”.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
07/16/2020 at 15:45

Haha! Must be nice - hoping to get there by 50.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
07/16/2020 at 15:50

I think EVs make great commuter cars... but I don’t have a commute.

When I climb in a car it’s usually to go a long distance, so the EV thing rapidly loses allure— especially as I see the Tesla guys camped out in Carl’s Jr. parking lots all over the west, enjoying Big Double Star Western Che’burgers and waiting for that last 5% of charge they need to get to the next FatBurger.

Makes no sense to me, but it probably shouldn’t.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
07/16/2020 at 16:08

I have a commute (60 miles) , but I need a car to do more than commute.

My car can commute, but can also drive cross-county on a whim, if desired, go deep into national forest twisties without worrying about range, and also be right at home on the occasional track day.

My truck is the Swiss Army knife of automobiles. Not the best at any one thing, but can do many, many things very well.

Once EVs with 350 miles of range can be had for the price of a Camry and can be recharged to 80% in 15 minutes (and the infrastructure is there, everywhere, to not wait in line), the masses will come.